30 replies to this topic

[admin]

I'm hearing lots of Liberals talk about "3 more years" of Harper. The more I think about it though the more I like our chances to win another majority. Here are my reasons why...

1. Seat realignment should net us another 10 seats
2. An aging population - statistically speaking older people are more conservative
3. The Obama disaster - he has bankrupted the USA and destroyed their economy. Big government has been proven a failed experiment.
4. Government cuts - bureaucrats vote Liberal. But once they lose their cushy government jobs and find private sector employment they will be less likely to vote Liberal.
5. Sun News
6. Government infrastructure - the CPC has appointment hundreds (if not thousands) of people to various posts at various levels of government. They have influence.
7. Fundraising - no more government subsidy and other changes to partisan fundraising play against the Liberals.

The wild card in all of this however is a Liberal merger with the NDP - though I think the logistics of the merger mean that they won't be an effective unified force in time for 2015 unless they merge this year.

[Steve O]

admin, on 21 January 2012 - 07:01 AM, said:

I'm hearing lots of Liberals talk about "3 more years" of Harper. The more I think about it though the more I like our chances to win another majority. Here are my reasons why...

1. Seat realignment should net us another 10 seats
2. An aging population - statistically speaking older people are more conservative
3. The Obama disaster - he has bankrupted the USA and destroyed their economy. Big government has been proven a failed experiment.
4. Government cuts - bureaucrats vote Liberal. But once they lose their cushy government jobs and find private sector employment they will be less likely to vote Liberal.
5. Sun News
6. Government infrastructure - the CPC has appointment hundreds (if not thousands) of people to various posts at various levels of government. They have influence.
7. Fundraising - no more government subsidy and other changes to partisan fundraising play against the Liberals.

The wild card in all of this however is a Liberal merger with the NDP - though I think the logistics of the merger mean that they won't be an effective unified force in time for 2015 unless they merge this year.

I agree with what you say; if their is a merger between the dippers and the libs, then the NDP manifesto should be required reading for every man woman and child in this country, at least then they could not say they didn't know .... Steve O

[Moderate Tory]

Minority definitely, majority possibly.

[Bluelikeme]

I think it's quite possible we can win another majority, as long as the continual mud slinging by the media doesn't stick. Or Lib/NDP merger.

I'd like to see Harper open up a bit more, at least the year before the election, just to stave off the raft of malicious pieces that will come about at that time.

[dentrobate54]

MajoriTORY definitely.

It's a numbers game. The NDP is losing its stranglehold on Quebec. The Liberals are losing seats to the NDP and Tories in Ontario, if the recent Provincial elections are any indication. Even if the rest of the country holds, it's still easily conceivable to see Harper getting around 175 seats next election.

I also do not foresee a Lib/NDP merger anytime soon.

[dentrobate54]

Oops, double post.

But yeah, I cannot wait to find out where the 15 additional Ontario seats are going. With a combined population of 1.2 million currently sharing 8 ridings, quite conceivably Mississauga and Brampton will receive three additional seats, all likely to vote Conservative.

[Moderate Tory]

It's quite possible a lot of the GTA could go Liberal again. While the Conservatives comfortably won a number of seats in the region there are still a good number that could go Liberal if the NDP drop off a few points. As well even seats won by a good margin aren't necessarily safe because they are former Liberal ridings that literally switched to the Conservatives during the last days of the campaign. I think the GTA will be a battleground in 2015. Without permanent leaders for the other two parties it's difficult to assesses things, if the Liberals have a leader who is popular in Ontario they could do well there.

[dentrobate54]

Moderate Tory, on 21 January 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

It's quite possible a lot of the GTA could go Liberal again. While the Conservatives comfortably won a number of seats in the region there are still a good number that could go Liberal if the NDP drop off a few points. As well even seats won by a good margin aren't necessarily safe because they are former Liberal ridings that literally switched to the Conservatives during the last days of the campaign. I think the GTA will be a battleground in 2015. Without permanent leaders for the other two parties it's difficult to assesses things, if the Liberals have a leader who is popular in Ontario they could do well there.

True, but then again the GTA really is the ONLY battleground in Canada right now as regional party strangleholds rule the day. It'll depend on how extensively anti-Ford, ant-Hudak sentiment translates to federal level politics whether Harper has much to fear here.

[Luke]

I think its too early to tell. A lot can happen in four years. If Europe's economy capsizes, and pulls everyone else down with it, then all bets are off.

[cosmostein]

AR has the Tories @ 39%

http://www.angus-rei...olitics_CAN.pdf

[Moderate Tory]

Harris Decima has them at 32%. http://harrisdecima....ention-tightens

[cosmostein]

Moderate Tory, on 25 January 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Harris Decima has them at 32%. http://harrisdecima....ention-tightens

Quote

In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives and NDP both stand at 35%

Either the ground is getting mighty cold, or HD is using a tiny sample group here or their VOX system is broken

[Luke]

Are we really worrying about polls less than a year into our mandate? If the CPC is at 32% in January 2015, I'll be concerned. Until then, lets focus on governing competently and let the polls take care of themselves.

[Mdl686]

Nothing could be more meaningless than polls 4 years away from the next writ. Why is it always assumed by the media that a merged Lib/Dip party will bring with it all the votes that those parties currently enjoy. If the NDP and the libs merge, they still cannot win. It will just mean that the new "progressive" party will lose more liberal voters. I say at least one more majority. Libs and Dips swap places as the party of Quebec/TO. Dips return to third party status, and the liberals are still unable to convince anyone outside Quebec to trust them.

[Bluelikeme]

I wouldn't worry too much about polls right now, but there's a trend... we are slipping. IMO any major changes to OAS and CPP will take us down.
http://www.thestar.c...ning-steam-poll

[Mac]

A great deal can happen, that is true but it's almost as if the deck is stacked in Harper's favour! His situation is better than that which Chretien milked three majorities out of and Harper has already shown he is every bit as astute as the old Cretch. The stacked deck?

The NDP have no leader. Jack worked hard on building a 'cult of personality' in his party, had the greatest electoral success in NDP history and then died. None of the declared candidates are particularly impressive.

The Liberals have no leader and they're a rump party. Boob Rae might want the crown but there's still many who won't forget Rae was a Dipper premier and a damned unpopular one at that. There hasn't been a flood of good candidates for the job either. They've pushed back their leadership campaign while they concentrate on paying the bills... and Rae is busily trying to cement his grip on the leadership...

The Bloc have a new leader but they're decimated. Does anyone remember their leadership campaign? It was in November; a media non-event. Their new leader doesn't have a seat and it's highly unlikely any of their four elected MPs are going to step aside for him... especially since two of the MPs also campaigned unsuccessfully for the leadership themselves.

The only way the Conservatives lose their majority is if they get sloppy or arrogant... They would have to outrage the population...

-Mac

[robcarlson]

Another majority seems extremely likely. The NDP have absolutely no hope of bettering their previous results. They've pretty much reached their ceiling in every region of the country except, perhaps, Saskatchewan and BC. But in both those provinces all the trends and conventional wisdom point to no (or very few) gains. The Liberals will likely rebound a bit in the popular vote but I don't see them making any real gains. Because of seat additions they likely will win a few more in Ontario and perhaps (a big if) in BC. I sense a trend, however, that they are still on the decline in Ontario and think we should be able to hold on to nearly all of our existing seats plus make gains with the new seats. I don't foresee much happening on the national scene besides Harper performing well and the NDP and Liberals doing what they do. That is, the NDP being unrealistic, impractical socialists that the vast majority of the country will never vote for and the Liberals continuing to be handicapped by pretentious, high-minded liberal thinking that doesn't allow them to truly explore what matters to Canadians and why there's such a disconnect between them and voters.

One things for sure at this point I can't envision the other parties forming government.

I think Canadians are slowly but surely being won over by Harper. What he has to avoid is allowing his (unfair or not) reputation of extreme control to get away on him. The way that the media portrays it is verging on undemocratic and we saw Ignatieff go after him on it last election. Eventually it will stick. Sometimes politicians, unfortunately, when the media or observers are being unfair about their judgements have to look at the behavior and alter it for the sake of maintaining impressions. Lest the impressions become popular.

[Triple_R]

Barring a crisis situation - Like a complete economic meltdown or a scandal the size of the Sponsorship Scandal - I think the Tories will win another majority in 2015.

If the Liberals finish 3rd again in 2015, I think you'll then see a serious attempt to unite-the-left, though.

[cosmostein]

Triple_R, on 03 February 2012 - 04:03 PM, said:

If the Liberals finish 3rd again in 2015, I think you'll then see a serious attempt to unite-the-left, though.

Agreed;

I don't think even the most versed political analysts felt this NDP "wave" was anything more then two of the best weeks in Canadian Election history which would eventually erode and the Liberals punishment at the hands of the voters would be complete, however we are in February and of the 5 polls we saw in January the Liberals were trailing the NDP in four of them, and leading within the MoE in one.

If we get into May and the NDP has a leader who is more popular then Nycole Turmel (which I would imagine will be very likely) and the Liberals then find they have been parked in 3rd for an entire year it becomes less of a blip and more of the norm.

Should the Liberals find themselves in 3rd in 2015 even if they make some gains the conversation of a united Left will become much louder.
However at that point I would question why the NDP would need them? If the NDP can be functional in fundraising and potentially strong in attracting candidates rather then merge with the Liberals I would simply target every last one of their ridings.

[Moderate Tory]

robcarlson, on 03 February 2012 - 06:42 AM, said:

Another majority seems extremely likely. The NDP have absolutely no hope of bettering their previous results. They've pretty much reached their ceiling in every region of the country except, perhaps, Saskatchewan and BC. But in both those provinces all the trends and conventional wisdom point to no (or very few) gains.

Polls have shown the NDP with a solid lead over the Conservatives in BC so they do have the potential to pick up a large number of seats there.